Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Feb 26 2353 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 - 24 February 2008

Solar activity was very low with no flares detected. The visible disk has been spotless since 05 February.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the entire summary period.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels at middle latitudes during 18 - 22 February. During the same period, high latitudes observed mostly unsettled to active levels with isolated minor to major storm periods. This activity was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that became geoeffective midday on 18 February. ACE solar wind measurements (638 km/s at 19/0143 UTC) and density (5-5 p/cc at 18/0644 UTC) both peaked early in the period.
Significant changes in the IMF were also observed early in the period including increased Bt (peak 8 nT at 18/1104 UTC) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -6 nT at 18/1411 UTC).
The high-speed stream began decaying midday on 20 February and ended the summary period with velocities near 410 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 February - 24 March 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on all days of the forecast period except 28 February and 08 March.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on 27 February. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 28 February - 01 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during 02 - 07 March as the high-speed stream subsides. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 08 - 13 March with minor to major storm periods possible at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during 14 - 24 March as the high-speed stream subsides.


Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 26 2353 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Feb 26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Feb 27 70 8 3
2008 Feb 28 70 15 4
2008 Feb 29 70 15 4
2008 Mar 01 70 10 3
2008 Mar 02 70 5 2
2008 Mar 03 70 5 2
2008 Mar 04 70 5 2
2008 Mar 05 70 5 2
2008 Mar 06 70 5 2
2008 Mar 07 70 5 2
2008 Mar 08 70 15 4
2008 Mar 09 70 15 4
2008 Mar 10 70 10 3
2008 Mar 11 70 12 3
2008 Mar 12 70 15 4
2008 Mar 13 70 10 3
2008 Mar 14 70 8 3
2008 Mar 15 70 5 2
2008 Mar 16 70 10 3
2008 Mar 17 70 10 3
2008 Mar 18 70 8 3
2008 Mar 19 70 8 3
2008 Mar 20 70 5 2
2008 Mar 21 70 5 2
2008 Mar 22 70 5 2
2008 Mar 23 70 5 2
2008 Mar 24 70 5 2
(NOAA)

SIDC Weekly Bulletin
27 February 2008
Issued: 2008 Feb 27 0804 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul
#--------------------------------------------------------#
# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity #
#--------------------------------------------------------#
WEEK 373 from 2008 Feb 18

SOLAR ACTIVITY
--------------
No flares occured this week. The X-ray radiation output was even
below the measurement level of GOES10.
A small equatorial hole passed the central meridian on Feb 17.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
--------------------
The equatorial hole caused minor disturbances on Feb 18.
Only period with Kp=4 was measured. Apart from this period,
the estimated Kp index reached a maximum value of only 3.
--------------------------------------------------------------
DAILY INDICES
DATE RC EISN 10CM Ak BKG M X
2008 Feb 18 000 000 71 017 A0.0 0 0
2008 Feb 19 000 000 72 014 A0.0 0 0
2008 Feb 20 000 000 71 006 A0.0 0 0
2008 Feb 21 /// 000 72 008 A0.0 0 0
2008 Feb 22 000 000 72 003 A0.0 0 0
2008 Feb 23 000 000 72 007 A0.0 0 0
2008 Feb 24 /// 000 71 006 A0.0 0 0
# RC : Sunspot index (Wolf Number) from Catania Observatory (Italy)
# EISN : Estimated International Sunspot Number
# 10cm : 10.7 cm radioflux (DRAO, Canada)
# Ak : Ak Index Wingst (Germany)
# BKG : Background GOES X-ray level (NOAA, USA)
# M,X : Number of X-ray flares in M and X class, see below
(NOAA)
(Source: Antonio Schuler/SW World)