Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 May 12 2121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 May 2009

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during 04 - 07 May. Four B1 X-ray flares were observed during 08 - 10 May. The
visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet levels during 02 - 06 May. Field activity increased to quiet to active levels during 07 - 08 May, with isolated minor storm periods observed at high latitudes, due to the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). ACE solar wind velocities increased from 414 km/s at 07/1803 UTC to a high of 527 km/s at 08/1136 UTC. During this period, the Bz component of the IMF varied between -5 nT and +5 nT. Field activity decreased to predominantly quiet levels on 09 - 10 May, and solar wind velocities gradually decreased to 415 km/s at the end of the forecast period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 May - 08 June 2009


Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal flux levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through 14 May. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 15 May, due to a recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to predominantly quiet levels during 16 May - 02 June. Quiet to active conditions, with isolated major storm levels possible at high latitudes, are expected during 02 - 04 June, due to a recurrent CH HSS. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected durivng 05 -v 08 June.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 May 12 2121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Issued 2009 May 12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 May 13 73 5 2
2009 May 14 73 5 2
2009 May 15 73 8 3
2009 May 16 73 5 2
2009 May 17 73 5 2
2009 May 18 73 5 2
2009 May 19 72 5 2
2009 May 20 72 5 2
2009 May 21 70 5 2
2009 May 22 70 5 2
2009 May 23 70 5 2
2009 May 24 70 5 2
2009 May 25 70 5 2
2009 May 26 70 5 2
2009 May 27 70 5 2
2009 May 28 70 5 2
2009 May 29 70 5 2
2009 May 30 70 5 2
2009 May 31 70 5 2
2009 Jun 01 70 5 2
2009 Jun 02 70 10 3
2009 Jun 03 70 8 3
2009 Jun 04 70 10 4
2009 Jun 05 72 8 3
2009 Jun 06 72 5 2
2009 Jun 07 72 5 2
2009 Jun 08 73 5 2
(NOAA)