Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Following propagation can enhance your shortwave listening. Winter in North America is also a great time to chase those elusive signals that were bogged down with high static last summer. Go for it ... ya never know what will fade in !
Gayle Van Horn

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Jan 03 2308 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 December - 01 January 2012

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Activity was moderate on 26 December due to M-class flares from Region 1387 (S21, L = 227, class/area Dki/290 on 27 December), the largest being a M2/Sf event
at 26/2030 UTC. Activity decreased to low levels during 27 - 28 December with most of the frequent C-class flares from Regions 1387 and 1389 (S23, L = 087, class/area Ekc/500 on 30 December). Activity returned to moderate levels during 29 - 31 December due to M-class flares from Region 1389. Activity decreased to low levels on 01 January with most of the flare activity from Region 1389.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit during the period. However, a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement occurred during 25 - 26 December (peak flux 3 pfu at 26/0135 UTC) associated with a M4/1n flare at 25/1816 UTC from Region 1387.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during 26 - 28 December. Activity increased to quiet to unsettled levels on 29 December due to weak CME passages associated with filament eruptions observed on 25 and 26 December. Field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels during 31 December - 01 January.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 January - 30 January 2012

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during 04 - 07 January. Normal flux levels are expected during 08 - 30 January.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 04 - 06 January due to recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected during 07 - 30 January.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Jan 03 2308 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-01-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Jan 04 140 8 3
2012 Jan 05 140 8 3
2012 Jan 06 140 8 3
2012 Jan 07 135 5 2
2012 Jan 08 130 5 2
2012 Jan 09 130 5 2
2012 Jan 10 125 5 2
2012 Jan 11 125 5 2
2012 Jan 12 125 5 2
2012 Jan 13 135 5 2
2012 Jan 14 140 5 2
2012 Jan 15 140 5 2
2012 Jan 16 140 5 2
2012 Jan 17 140 5 2
2012 Jan 18 140 5 2
2012 Jan 19 140 5 2
2012 Jan 20 140 5 2
2012 Jan 21 140 5 2
2012 Jan 22 145 5 2
2012 Jan 23 145 5 2
2012 Jan 24 150 5 2
2012 Jan 25 150 5 2
2012 Jan 26 150 5 2
2012 Jan 27 140 5 2
2012 Jan 28 135 5 2
2012 Jan 29 135 5 2
2012 Jan 30 135 5 2
(NOAA)