Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Dec 31 1342 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 December 2012

Solar activity was low. Region 1635 (N11, L=63, class/area=Dac/270 on 25 December) was the most active region this period, producing twelve C-class flares. The largest of these was a C4/Sf at 1304 UTC on 25 December. Although Region 1635 periodically exhibited beta-gamma magnetic characteristics during its lifetime, it exited the visible disk as a simple spotless plage region. Region 1633 (S07, L=113, class/area=Eai/100 on 24 December) produced a C1 at 2226 UTC on 24 December along with numerous low-level B-class flares throughout the period. Region 1638 (N12, L=310, class/area=Hsx/150 on 29 December) produced a single C1/Sf flare at 1933 UTC on 29
December. A 10 degree filament erupted near N08E20 around 1939 UTC on 27 December. While the bulk of the ejecta from this event was directed north of the ecliptic, a weak impact is expected at earth
on 01 January.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels all week.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from around 250 km/s to around 350 km/s throughout most of the period. There was a slight increase to about 490 km/s towards the end of the week as the effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) were felt for about a 24 hour period. They have since settled back down to appproximately 400 km/s as the effects of the CH HSS begin to wane. The interplanetary magnetic field total field ranged from around 1 - 8 nT while the Bz component ranged from around +5 nT to -5 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 December - 26 January 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated M-class flares throughout the period (31 December - 26 January).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately quiet with a chance for unsettled conditions on 01-02, and 10 January with positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 31 1342 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2012-12-31
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2012 Dec 31     105           5          2
2013 Jan 01     105           8          3
2013 Jan 02     110          10          3
2013 Jan 03     110           5          2
2013 Jan 04     110           5          2
2013 Jan 05     110           5          2
2013 Jan 06     110           5          2
2013 Jan 07     110           5          2
2013 Jan 08     110           5          2
2013 Jan 09     105           5          2
2013 Jan 10     105           5          2
2013 Jan 11     105           5          2
2013 Jan 12     105           5          2
2013 Jan 13     105          10          3
2013 Jan 14     110           5          2
2013 Jan 15     110           5          2
2013 Jan 16     110           5          2
2013 Jan 17     110           5          2
2013 Jan 18     115           5          2
2013 Jan 19     115           5          2
2013 Jan 20     115           5          2
2013 Jan 21     120           5          2
2013 Jan 22     120           5          2
2013 Jan 23     120           5          2
2013 Jan 24     115           5          2
2013 Jan 25     115           5          2
2013 Jan 26     110           5          2
(NOAA)