Monday, January 23, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 23 0615 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html 
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 January 2017

Solar activity was at low levels due to a C9/1f flare observed at 21/0726 UTC from Region 2628 (N12, L=173, class/area Dao/210 on 22 January). Region 2628 was responsible for additional C-class flaring on 21 January. The rest of the period was at very low levels. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on 16-17, and 20-22 January. The largest flux value of the period was 3,090 pfu observed at 16/1935 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind parameters were indicative of background conditions to start the period. Early on 18 January, wind speed began to increase as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Wind speed reached a maximum value of 651 km/s at 19/0320 UTC and total field peaked at 17 nT at 18/0605 UTC before gradually decreasing throughout the remainder of the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 16-17 January, quiet to active levels on 18-19 & 21 January, and quiet to unsettled levels on 20 & 22 January. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 January - 18 February 2017

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares on 23-31 January and 14-18 February due to the flare potential in Region 2628. Very low levels are expected on 01-13 February. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 23-27 January, 01-13 February, and again on 16-18 February due to CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23, 27-31 January, 01-07 February and 14-18 February with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 03 February due to recurrent CH HSS effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Jan 23 0615 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-01-23
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Jan 23      85           8          3
2017 Jan 24      83           5          2
2017 Jan 25      82           5          2
2017 Jan 26      80           5          2
2017 Jan 27      80          12          4
2017 Jan 28      80          15          4
2017 Jan 29      78           8          3
2017 Jan 30      77          10          3
2017 Jan 31      77          12          4
2017 Feb 01      76          16          4
2017 Feb 02      76          18          4
2017 Feb 03      75          20          5
2017 Feb 04      75          16          4
2017 Feb 05      75          12          4
2017 Feb 06      75          10          3
2017 Feb 07      75           8          3
2017 Feb 08      76           5          2
2017 Feb 09      77           5          2
2017 Feb 10      77           5          2
2017 Feb 11      77           5          2
2017 Feb 12      77           5          2
2017 Feb 13      78           5          2
2017 Feb 14      79          15          4
2017 Feb 15      81          10          3
2017 Feb 16      83          10          3
2017 Feb 17      83           8          3
2017 Feb 18      83           8          3
(NOAA)