Monday, February 06, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Feb 06 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 January - 05 February 2017

Solar activity was very low through the period with only two B-class flares observed from Regions 2631 (S05, L=113, class/area Bxo/010 on 31 January) and 2632 (N14, L=085, class/area Dao/060 on 02 February) on 04 February. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 31 January and reached high levels on 30 January and again on 01-05 February. The largest flux of the period was 22,414 pfu observed at 04/1820 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. The period began with solar wind speeds near 400 km/s. By 30/1138 UTC, total field and solar wind speed began to increase indicating the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). By 31/1153, total field reached a maximum of 17.2 nT while the solar wind speed reached a peak of 796 km/s at 31/2041 UTC. By 31/1600 UTC, total field had decreased to 5-6 nT while the solar wind speed began to decline early on 02 February until early on 05 February when another increase to near 630 km/s was observed. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 30 January and 04 February, quiet to active levels on 02-03 and 05 February, and unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 31 January through 01 February.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 February - 04 March 2017

Solar activity is expected to be very low levels throughout the period with a chance for C-class flares on 11-24 February with the return of old Region 2628 (N12, L=174).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 06-13, 16-19, 22-26 and 28 February - 04 March due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet with unsettled to active levels expected on 06-09,14-18, 22-25 and 27 February - 04 March with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 27 February and 01-02 March and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 28 February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Feb 06 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-02-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Feb 06      72          10          3
2017 Feb 07      72          12          4
2017 Feb 08      72          12          4
2017 Feb 09      72           8          3
2017 Feb 10      72           5          2
2017 Feb 11      75           5          2
2017 Feb 12      75           5          2
2017 Feb 13      75           5          2
2017 Feb 14      75          15          4
2017 Feb 15      76          10          3
2017 Feb 16      77          10          3
2017 Feb 17      78           8          3
2017 Feb 18      80           8          3
2017 Feb 19      80           5          2
2017 Feb 20      82           5          2
2017 Feb 21      82           5          2
2017 Feb 22      81          10          3
2017 Feb 23      79          15          4
2017 Feb 24      77          10          3
2017 Feb 25      77          10          3
2017 Feb 26      75           5          2
2017 Feb 27      75          25          5
2017 Feb 28      75          30          6
2017 Mar 01      75          25          5
2017 Mar 02      74          20          5
2017 Mar 03      74          15          4
2017 Mar 04      73          12          4
(NOAA)